Thread

Tweet 1

@argzax Of course we could draw land and allosaurus before they cast another hand disruption spell or Ashiok or just beat us down but I think that's very unlikely. I'm also rounding the probability we miss on edge cycle and still win to zero. But I vote YOLO!

---

Tweet 2

@argzax Math for reference: 8/54+4*8/54/53+4*3*8/54/53/52+4*3*2*8/54/53/52/51+4*3*2*1*8/54/53/52/51/50 = 0.16 It's very important that we factor in the probability that we draw 4 running manamorphose before we hit pact/allosaurus.

---

Tweet 3

@argzax Oops I forgot to factor in the two cards we bottomed. I actually get: 8/52+4*8/52/51+4*3*8/50/51/52+4*3*2*8/49/50/52/51+4*3*2*1*8/48/49/52/51/50 = 16.66 (repeating of course)

---